Shelf First, Story Later: Inside CPG’s Pre-Winter Power Struggle.

Summary:

‍Before the first frost, CPG brands are already deep in shelf wars. Retailers are locking in space, commercial roles seem to be expanding, and consumer curiosity continues to move toward functional wellness faster than budgets may be adjusting.

Maybe it’s just me, but CPG never gets old. I’m always scanning new arrivals both online and IRL, from glossy retail endcaps to Lisbon's immigrant-owned bodegas. Lately, Mercado d’Santos has been my go-to for spotting the unexpected. Maybe that’s why I notice when the category itself starts to shift, and why I keep returning to Mercado d’Santos, a Pandora’s box of a premium bodega wedged between Pombaline buildings in Lisbon. Its shelves are stacked like a manifesto.

A row of French cheeses next to Portuguese start-up brand of protein bars, Korean instant noodles leaning against organic Italian tinned tomatoes. To most passersby it’s just a shop; to its owner, it’s a reflection of who’s winning and who’s trying to hang on in the world of consumer packaged goods.

October always carries a peculiar tension in CPG. Retailers are locking in shelf sets for the holidays, but the real signals are in the jobs market.

In my small review of over 100 recent job listings, commercial roles at both legacy and challenger CPG brands have surged, while leadership hiring remains limited. Sales directors, revenue-growth leads, and account managers are moving; C-suites are not. It may suggest that some companies are prioritising share of shelf over broader category storytelling this season.

At the same time, consumer curiosity is sprinting ahead of boardroom budgets. Interest in functional hydration, magnesium-infused drinks, bright-green “energy waters,” detox add-ins, is climbing online, even as innovation-focused roles remain fewer.

The contrast is stark: talent flows toward the shelf, while curiosity flows toward new rituals. As we head into winter, brands that manage to bridge those two currents, pairing commercial muscle with credible, wellness-driven launches, will enter January with momentum rather than markdown fatigue.

Autumn brings a search for focus, stamina, and small mood-lifts. Think magnesium-boosted hydration or green tonics promising calm concentration. It’s a softer, more functional form of self-care, less about bikini-season resets, more about surviving dark commutes with steady energy.

There appears to be a growing disconnect between what companies are hiring for and what consumers are curious about. Come January, that gap may become the growth story: the brands that marry shelf power with wellness credibility could win both mindshare and market share.

For now, October belongs to the quiet commercial grind, and to the consumers already writing next year’s brief in the comments.

CPG’s Pre-Winter Mood: October 2025

Shelf first, stories later. That’s the mood across CPG to start Q4.

1) Value pressure is back on the shelf

UK shop-price inflation ticked up again, led by beef and dairy, with a new packaging tax adding heat. Expect tougher negotiations, sharper promotions, and less room for speculative launches.

Early holiday sales now begin in October. Amazon’s Big Deal Days and copycat events are pulling demand forward while shoppers chase discounts and BNPL offers. For CPG, promo calendars start now, and margin math gets harder.

2) Private label tightens its grip

Store brands keep gaining swagger. Europe still leads, North America is the growth engine, and discounters are branding their own labels more boldly, see Aldi’s decision to put “Aldi” on packaging in the U.S. The signal: retailer power rising, national brands must justify every premium.

3) Startups still stealing share from Big Food

Challenger brands continue to drive category growth despite a choppy macro. Legacy players can’t win both the price-sensitive and the quality-seeking shopper without real renovation, or M&A that actually sticks.
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Across categories, the same tension shows up: leaner budgets, faster calendars, and less patience for ‘test-and-learn’ innovation.

4) Functional keeps climbing (but credibility matters)

Functional drinks remain hot, botanicals, electrolytes, protein, nootropics. The category is projected to expand strongly into the decade. The risk isn’t demand, it’s education. Consumers need to believe the function, not just see it in ad spend.

5) GLP-1 changes baskets—but not the need for reformulation

Weight-loss meds are suppressing consumption in some households and shifting occasions, but “better-for-you” reformulation and sugar reduction remain non-negotiable. Plan formats and pack sizes for smaller, more purposeful consumption.

6) Holiday outlook: growth, but cooler

Online holiday sales are still set to rise, just at a slower rate than 2024. Shoppers want value and they’re shopping earlier. For CPG: expect earlier demand, stretched promo windows, and tight service-level discipline.

7) Europe: stabilising, cautiously

Grocery recovered modestly through 2024, but 2025 remains price-sensitive. Brands need country-by-country plays—on private label defense, promo depth, and entry-price architecture.

Boardroom Moves: What to Do Now

1. Front-load promo science.
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Model elasticity for October–November, not just Black Friday week. Tie media to known deal windows. (Barron’s)

2. Defend the premium.
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Where private label crowds in, add visible function—electrolytes, protein, botanicals—and transparency in labelling to justify price. (FoodNavigator)

3. Right-size formats.
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Smaller, satiating, GLP-1-friendly packs for some cohorts; club and family value for others. (Grocery Dive)

4. Build retailer-specific narratives.
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If the retailer is branding its own label, your story must sharpen around quality proof points and usage occasions. (RetailDetail EU)

5. Watch competitors as lead indicators.
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Track where they’re over-indexing, then respond with targeted renovation or partnership. (Wall Street Journal)

October is when the commercial groundwork gets laid. The brands that balance retail and relevance will be best positioned to turn shelf space into resilience, and revenue.

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